The American Tory

Strategic Vision has a new poll out tomorrow saying Rudy Giuliani would trounce his opponents if the Pennsylvania Republican Presidential Primary was held today. Also, he leads in Michigan in a closer race.

PA - Giuliani leads with 42%, followed by Thompson at 16%, McCain at 10% and Romney 6%.

MI – Giuliani leads with 20%, followed by Romney at 15%, McCain at 14% and Thompson at 14%.

There has been talk of some social conservatives refusing to vote for Rudy Giuliani in a general election while he continues to have the support of more evangelicals than any other candidate.

Does the defection of some social conservatives to a third party hurt Giuliani? Probably not for a few reasons.

First, the appearance of a socially conservative party would help the Republicans differentiate themselves from Bush. A socially conservative party would be a natural continuation of the Bush social agenda on abortion, marriage, sex education, etc… This would allow Giuliani to run away from one of the most Bush like qualities: social conservatism. Giuliani would not be Bush’s likely heir then.

Second, a socially conservative candidate could possibly pull votes from socially conservative Democrats too. Based on the platform of right wing third party candidates in the past (the Constitution Party), they would likely be protectionists. Its plausible some socially conservative Democratic union households could fine this third party just as attractive as their socially conservative Republican counterparts.

Third, with the culture war debate not so polarized, economic and fiscal issues would like come to the forefront. This is where Giuliani can draw differences between himself and his Democratic opponent while distancing himself from the Bush administration. Its very plausible socially liberal rich people would used to vote Republican (aka the Blue-blood Republicans) would come back into the fold to vote for the guy who represents them the most ideologically.

Adding a third candidate would definitely make things interesting, but it is possible that it could help Giuliani as it would allow him to break from Bush in the eyes of the public and shift the debate to fiscal issues.

Yes the polling indicates social conservatives, especially in the South, are prepared to vote for Rudy Giuliani for the Republican nomination even if they know his social stances.

I am not surprised social conservatives in the South are ok with voting for a pro-choice/pro-gay rights Republican from New York City for a few reasons:

1) Giuliani is the most electable. The Democrats will be on the defensive almost everywhere if Giuliani is the Republican nominee. Beyond making it hard for the Democrats to win the presidency, the effect on down ballot races would likely throw control of at least the Senate into Republican hands and possibly the House of Representatives.

2) Southerners have voted for pro-choice candidates before. Remember Bill Clinton won some southern states during his two victories. Ross Perot won a good share of the vote in 1992 in many southern states while being pro-choice.

3) Giuliani agrees with social conservatives on other issues like defending Western civilization from Islamic radicals, fighting crime and the war on drugs, low taxes, school choice, and smaller government in general.

This will be a monumental shift in American politics and probably will cause both sides to rethink their ideological bents. The Republicans will return to their 1980s style small government philosophy for morality instead of the current strategy of using government as a tool to spread morality. Its hard as hell to tell where the Democrats go from here. Affluent social liberals will are more ideologically compatible with Giuliani than the anti-free market Democrats. Do the Democrats enter the political wilderness as seen during the 1980s by endorsing quazi-socialism or do they go somewhere else?